2028 Looms as Strategy’s Critical Survival Test Despite Nasdaq 100 Retention
The post 2028 Looms as Strategy’s Critical Survival Test Despite Nasdaq 100 Retention appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Although Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) has retained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index, concerns over the sustainability of its business model are mounting, with new analysis pointing to 2028 as the critical year that will determine the company’s survival. The company now holds a Bitcoin position large enough to influence the broader market. Its holdings are well beyond the scale of a typical whale. Sponsored Sponsored Tiger Research: “2028 Is the Real Test” Blockchain research firm Tiger Research has identified 2028 as the key risk point in its analysis of Strategy’s financial structure. The report highlights a critical shift in Strategy’s capital-raising approach. Until 2023, the company relied on cash reserves and small convertible notes, keeping holdings in the low 100,000 BTC range. From 2024, Strategy dramatically increased leverage by combining preferred equity, ATM programs, and large convertible offerings. This created a feedback loop where rising Bitcoin prices enabled even greater purchases. The problem: call options on these convertible bonds are concentrated in 2028, creating approximately $6.4 billion in redemption pressure. Investors can demand early repayment, and the company cannot refuse. No Cash Flow, No Safety Net Tiger Research points to a fundamental vulnerability: Strategy used virtually all raised capital to buy Bitcoin rather than productive assets generating cash flow. “Had the funds been deployed into productive assets, the firm would have a natural source of repayment,” the report noted. “Instead, the focus on Bitcoin accumulation leaves little cash available for redemption.” Sponsored Sponsored If refinancing options are blocked in 2028, Strategy must sell approximately 71,000 BTC at $90,000. This is equivalent to 20-30% of daily trading volume, potentially triggering a market-wide downward spiral. Bankruptcy Threshold Rising Strategy’s static bankruptcy threshold stands at $23,000 as of 2025—requiring a 73% price decline. However, this level has steadily risen from…
