$5 trillion triple-witching and Fed decision collide, but traders see no volatility spike yet

The post $5 trillion triple-witching and Fed decision collide, but traders see no volatility spike yet appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Markets are staring down a week packed with chaos triggers, but traders aren’t twitching. A $5 trillion triple-witching options expiry lands on Friday, just two days after the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. And yet, no one is betting on a volatility surge, not yet. That’s straight from a Bloomberg report that broke this story wide open. The Fed, under Jerome Powell, is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. That move is already priced in. What’s not priced in is Powell’s tone during the press conference. Traders aren’t waiting for the cut; they’re watching for clues on how deep and how fast rate cuts could come next. The focus now moves to the labor market, with key data coming in over the next few weeks that could push Powell’s hand. Volatility stays low as eyes turn to jobs and Powell’s tone Options traders are positioning for small swings. Citigroup sees just a 0.72% move expected for Wednesday’s Fed meeting and a 0.78% move around the October 3 nonfarm payrolls report. That’s tame for a week when most dealers are usually on edge. Stuart Kaiser, who runs U.S. equity-trading strategy at Citi, said the real jolt will come if the employment data collapses. “If you threw up a minus 50k payrolls next month, you’re gonna get vol higher,” Stuart said. “You probably need the unemployment rate to be around 4.5%.” Last week’s jobless claims already flashed warning signs. Initial claims hit the highest level in nearly four years, setting off alarms across trading desks. That spike came just days after a sweeping jobs revision showed the U.S. had 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported between April 2024 and March 2025. The slowdown is real, but not a full crash… yet. “We’re not getting…