Bitcoin data shows over 25% of supply now underwater
The post Bitcoin data shows over 25% of supply now underwater appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin failed to break through the key $94,000 level on 3 December, underscoring the market’s increasingly fragile structure. On-chain data shows more than a quarter of all BTC supply has slipped into unrealized loss. The rejection aligns with a critical threshold identified by Glassnode’s Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which tracks the cost basis of large segments of circulating supply to measure structural risk in the market. Bitcoin on-chain quantiles show rising structural risk According to Glassnode, Bitcoin fell below its 0.75 cost-basis quantile in mid-November, meaning that over 25% of the supply, predominantly held by top buyers from recent months, is now underwater. Historically, this zone marks a pivotal phase where markets balance between capitulation pressure from late entrants and the early stages of seller exhaustion often seen near cyclical bottoms. Source: Glassnode Since breaching this threshold, Bitcoin has shown heightened sensitivity to macro conditions and has struggled to regain upward momentum. Rejection at $94K confirms resistance at key cost-basis levels The significance of the 0.75 quantile became clear when Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the $94K region on 3 December, only to reverse sharply and close lower. Price currently sits near $92,500, reinforcing the idea that the market cannot establish stability until it recovers the 0.75 quantile near $95,800. Source: TradingView A more decisive structural shift would require a break above the 0.85 quantile at roughly $106,200. This is a zone where long-term trends historically strengthen, and downside risk tends to diminish. Bitcoin technical indicators reflect weakening momentum Market structure on the daily chart aligns with the on-chain picture. The DMI shows fading bullish strength as the positive directional index loses momentum while sellers regain traction. The ADX, while still elevated, has begun to flatten, signalling compression and indecision in the prevailing trend. The failed higher-low progression on the…
