Bitcoin Derivatives Enter Risk-On Mode as Futures Traders Go Aggressive
Bitcoin futures positioning has transitioned into a steady bullish zone for the first time in three months, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.
The Bitcoin Positioning Index rose to 3.5, which is the first breakout above the 3 level since October last year.
BTC Futures Turn Bullish
The index, which accounts for open interest dynamics, funding rates, and long/short opening ratios across major cryptocurrency exchanges, suggests that bullish positions in the futures market have been systematically accumulating rather than forming in a single day.
The last time the SMA-30d reached similar levels was October 6, 2025, during a rally that pushed Bitcoin to $125,000. Daily data for the index reached 24, thereby placing it firmly in the bullish zone amid aggressive long positioning, including a 1.89% rise in open interest, a positive taker delta, and funding at 0.0045.
Bitcoin’s price rose nearly 4% to $95,358, while open interest increased to $12.18 billion. Adler explained that the SMA-30d breakout above 3 after three months in the neutral 0 ± 2 range indicates a local regime shift in market positioning. He added that continuation of the bullish trend would depend on the SMA remaining above 2 for at least a week.
At the same time, the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index reached a peak of 93% before pulling back to 70%. The index remains above the neutral 50% threshold and above its SMA-30d level of 62.9%, which means that bullish sentiment continues despite the pullback. Adler interpreted the 23-percentage-point decline as a release of market overheating rather than a reversal.
For comparison, during December’s correction to $85,000, sentiment fell to extreme lows of 10-15%, which Adler described as a structural breakdown rather than a temporary adjustment. He added that if market sentiment turns negative and BTC’s price falls below $92,000, it would indicate that bullish momentum in the futures market is starting to fade.
Opportunity for Bitcoin
QCP Capital also expects further upside in a continued risk-on environment. The firm cited the current US economy, stable inflation, and strong equity and precious metal markets as supporting factors for broader risk appetite, which could extend to digital assets.
While geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as a pending US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, remain potential risks, QCP Capital said these developments appear to be largely priced in, and any escalation could present buy-the-dip opportunities for BTC.
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