Bitcoin Forecast: caution for today
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Many forecasts about the future trend of the price of Bitcoin are still bullish, but in the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to what might happen today. In fact, the inflation data in the USA for the month of July will be released, and this could cause volatility in the financial markets. The problem is that there are signals indicating that the price of Bitcoin might react poorly to this volatility today. The data on inflation Currently, the markets are betting on a next cut in interest rates by the Fed in September, considered likely at more than 80%. Analysts assign an 84.4% probability to a 25 bps interest rate cut during the next Fed meeting. Source: CME Group | Fed Watch A potential cut would reduce the yield of American government bonds, thus prompting some current holders of Treasuries to sell them. Such a sale, if it were to occur, should theoretically weaken the dollar, and since the price trend of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated with the Dollar Index in the medium term, a potential weakening of the dollar could cause Bitcoin to rise. However, there is still more than a month until the next Fed decision on rates. In the meantime, today the updated data on inflation in the USA for the month of July will be released. The fact is that, should inflation be high, the chances of a Fed rate cut in September would decrease, and with this also the chances of a decline in the Dollar Index. Regarding the monetary policy of the US central bank, the most important data is the core inflation (excluding energy and food). Currently, the consensus is for an increase in core inflation from 2.9% to 3%, particularly due to the Trump tariffs. Note that…
