Diminishing Returns Signal a New Era for Bitcoin, Analysts Warn

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Bitcoin Bitcoin’s long-standing rhythm of boom-and-bust cycles may be losing its predictive power, according to new insights from 10x Research. The firm argues that the cryptocurrency’s historical models—especially the once-popular stock-to-flow (S2F) theory—no longer provide an accurate reflection of current market dynamics, as the asset matures and investor behavior evolves. The report, released on October 28, 2025, highlights what analysts describe as “diminishing returns” for Bitcoin. While such a trend is often viewed as a normal symptom of maturity for any growing financial asset, 10x Research says it raises deeper questions about whether Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle—tied to its halving events—still holds any real predictive value. Is Bitcoin Now Too Expensive for Retail — and Could It Break the Cycle? Bitcoin is suffering from diminishing returns. While many view this as a natural sign of maturity, it raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory. Although the… pic.twitter.com/tbYBxZr83i — 10x Research (@10x_Research) October 28, 2025 Maturity or Exhaustion? The Debate Deepens Bitcoin has historically followed a repeating pattern: a halving event reduces supply growth, enthusiasm builds, a parabolic rally follows, and eventually, the market collapses into a multi-month correction. This cyclical structure has shaped both investor sentiment and institutional forecasts for more than a decade. However, 10x Research suggests that the market’s increasing sophistication and changing macroeconomic backdrop may be breaking this pattern. The analysts note that drawing firm conclusions from just three or four past cycles offers limited statistical credibility. “We are now at a point where Bitcoin’s evolution cannot be captured by simplistic historical repetition,” the report implies, urging investors to move away from overreliance on halving-based forecasts. Stock-to-Flow Model’s Decline in Credibility Once heralded as the gold standard for Bitcoin valuation, the stock-to-flow model aimed to quantify scarcity by comparing the existing circulating…