The dollar stays king until 2046 crushing Bitcoin dreams with $13 trillion of IMF data
Bitcoin’s earliest realistic path to becoming the world’s global reserve currency (defined here as reserve-currency primacy rather than limited reserve-asset adoption) sits around the mid-2040s under a scenario model that treats official mandates, collateral usage, and invoicing conventions as binding constraints.
That timeline starts from a reserve system where total global foreign-exchange reserves reached $12.94 trillion in 2025’s second quarter and the U.S. dollar still accounted for 56.32% of allocated reserves.
The same IMF series shows why a decade-scale flip is hard to model with high confidence, even under fast private adoption. The denominator is large, and changes slowly.
In 2025Q1, the IMF put the U.S. dollar at 57.74% of allocated reserves, the euro at 20.06% and the renminbi at 2.12%. Those figures frame the distribution of “safe” reserve balance sheets central banks already run.
Reserve currency status also tracks the funding and hedging ecosystem behind reserve portfolios. The dollar was on one side of 88% of global foreign-exchange transactions in April 2022.
The collateral core of that network remains U.S. Treasurys.
There were about $30.3 trillion outstanding and about $1,047.1 billion in average daily trading volume, according to SIFMA’s U.S. Treasury securities statistics in its January 2026 update.
Two steps: Reserve asset adoption vs. reserve-currency primacy
Bitcoin’s reserve-currency case therefore has two separate steps that markets often compress into one narrative. The first is a “reserve asset breakthrough,” where official institutions and regulated intermediaries treat BTC as a long-duration reserve diversifier in limited size.
The second is “reserve-currency primacy,” where BTC becomes a standard unit for invoicing, settlement, collateral and liquidity provision across borders.
The IMF’s dominant-currency framework describes why invoicing and contracting conventions can persist even when trade shares move, because pricing and financing habits can become self-reinforcing in stress and in normal times.
That persistence is outlined in the IMF staff discussion note, “Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment”.
Policy and market plumbing now in development can also raise the bar for that second step. It can extend dollar usage into new rails rather than displacing it.
The BIS said Project Agorá is exploring tokenization of wholesale central bank money and commercial bank deposits on programmable platforms for cross-border payments. That maps to a future where major-currency settlement and bank balance sheets remain the primary “money object,” even if the interface changes.
Citi, in its 2025 stablecoin outlook, revised its 2030 issuance forecasts to $1.9 trillion in a base case and $4.0 trillion in a bull case.
McKinsey has separately framed tokenization of real-world assets, excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, at about $2 trillion by 2030. It estimates a range of about $1 trillion–$4 trillion, reinforcing the scale of balance-sheet migration that can occur without changing the unit of account for reserves.
Access is widening, but official constraints remain
Regulated access to Bitcoin has widened. This addresses one barrier to broader reserve-asset ownership, while leaving the reserve-currency hurdle intact.
The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETP Rule 19b-4 applications on Jan. 10, 2024. That created a standardized wrapper for U.S. investors and some institutions that cannot custody BTC directly.
Secondary market measures point to rapid growth in those wrappers. Cumulative U.S. spot crypto ETF trading volume is above $2 trillion, and spot Bitcoin ETF assets are around $117 billion as of Jan. 2, 2026.
That data point matters more as an adoption channel than as a direct proxy for sovereign reserve intent. For more on AUM and market positioning, see spot Bitcoin ETFs marking their first anniversary with four among the top 20 in AUM.
Central bank behavior in the near term also points to a competing diversification outlet that already matches reserve-manager constraints. The World Gold Council reported central banks bought about 1,045 metric tons of gold in 2024, the third straight year above 1,000 tons.
Its 2025 survey said 95% of respondents expect global gold reserves to rise, with a record 43% expecting their own gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months. Those findings were published in the WGC’s 2024 gold demand (central banks section) and the WGC central bank survey 2025.
That observable flow constrains any model that assumes near-term official diversification will default to BTC. It instead competes with a reserve asset that already has established accounting and liquidity conventions.
A constrained model points to an earliest window around 2046
A forward-looking estimate for Bitcoin as the world’s “global reserve currency” therefore depends on gates that must clear in sequence.
These include volatility compression suitable for reserve portfolios, legal and regulatory standardization for custody and settlement finality, and deeper collateral and funding markets that can operate through stress.
They also include official-sector mandates beyond symbolic allocations. Finally, they require a shift in invoicing, settlement or collateral practice away from the dollar’s current base.
The moat those gates must cross is visible in macro data, including the dollar’s share of reserves, its position in FX markets, and the scale of Treasury collateral. Those constraints are grounded in COFER, the BIS FX surve,y and SIFMA’s Treasury market statistics.
Using those constraints, our scenario model assigns an “earliest plausible window” for reserve-currency primacy around 2046.
It separates that from the earlier possibility that BTC becomes a small reserve asset in some portfolios.
The probability table below treats reserve-currency primacy as the target outcome. It explicitly frames the figures as editorial modeling rather than sourced forecasts.
| Horizon | Probability BTC becomes global reserve currency (primacy) by then (editorial model) | Model anchors tied to observable constraints |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years (2031) | 1% | ETP access exists, but reserve-manager requirements and official mandates rarely shift inside a single cycle, while USD reserve share and FX dominance remain high (CRS; IMF COFER 2025Q2; BIS FX survey). |
| 10 years (2036) | 4% | Tokenized deposits and USD-denominated stablecoins can scale on programmable rails, reinforcing incumbent currency usage even as settlement tech changes (BIS Project Agorá; Citi stablecoin framework). |
| 20 years (2046) | 15% | Multi-cycle regulatory convergence and financing-market maturation could compound, though the Treasury collateral base and FX network effects remain large (SIFMA Treasury statistics; BIS FX survey). |
| 50 years (2076) | 35% | Long horizons allow institutional rewiring, while dominant-currency persistence in invoicing and contracting remains a structural headwind (IMF dominant-currency framework). |
| Never | 45% | Structural barriers include the absence of an issuer backstop for stress operations and the possibility that tokenized USD systems absorb most digital money demand (BIS Project Agorá; Citi stablecoin framework). |
Dollar usage in cross-border payments and trade finance also remains a relevant constraint in models of currency primacy, although definitions matter. The Wall Street Journal cited SWIFT data placing the dollar at about 47% of payments and about 80% of trade finance.
Those figures are directional without the underlying SWIFT release in hand.
What emerges from the combined data is a split between fast-moving channels that can expand Bitcoin exposure and slow-moving channels that define reserve currency status.
Tokenized bank money and stablecoins can reach a trillion-dollar scale within the decade while keeping dollars and bank deposits at the center of settlement, according to the BIS and Citi’s framing.
Central banks can continue to add gold as a balance-sheet hedge while keeping the dollar at the core of FX reserves, according to the World Gold Council and COFER. Those constraints make 2046 an “earliest window” for primacy in this model rather than a median outcome.
They also keep the near-term story centered on whether Bitcoin can mature into collateral and liquidity infrastructure that reserve managers can hold through stress.
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