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The US Senate could wipe out $6 billion in crypto rewards this week by closing one specific loophole
The GENIUS Act banned issuer-paid yield, but the Senate markup fight is whether exchanges can keep routing rewards around that restriction, and the answer could decide who controls $6 billion in annual incentives.
Senate Banking is scheduled to consider the CLARITY Act on Jan. 15, and the legislative fight has narrowed to a single question with billion-dollar consequences: what counts as a stablecoin “reward,” and who's allowed to pay it?
Bloomberg reported that Coinbase may reconsider its support for CLARITY if the bill's language moves beyond disclosure requirements to outright restrict rewards, a signal that the industry's pro-crypto coalition is testing its own limits as regulatory text gets more specific.
The backdrop is straightforward. GENIUS, now Public Law 119-27, established a payment stablecoin framework and included an issuer-level prohibition: permitted stablecoin issuers cannot pay holders interest or yield solely for holding, using, or retaining the stablecoin.
The logic was clear, as payment stablecoins should function as money, not deposit substitutes competing with regulated banks. But GENIUS left open the question of what happens when platforms, exchanges, or affiliates offer rewards funded from their own revenue or structured as loyalty incentives rather than direct yield pass-throughs.
CLARITY is where that enforcement perimeter gets defined, and the markup will reveal whether Congress treats the issuer ban as a narrow firewall or the start of a broader prohibition that extends to any entity in the distribution chain.
Definition fight that actually matters
Three archetypes of stablecoin rewards exist in the market, and lawmakers are implicitly choosing which ones survive.
- The first is issuer-paid yield, where the stablecoin issuer shares reserve income directly with holders. GENIUS was designed to block this, and no one disputes that restriction.
- The second is platform-funded loyalty, where an exchange or wallet pays rewards from its own margin or marketing budget to drive adoption or retain balances.
- The third is pass-through T-bill economics, where product design effectively routes reserve yield to users through affiliate structures, partner arrangements, or carefully layered incentive programs that claim independence from the issuer.
The legislative knife-edge is whether CLARITY treats rewards as a disclosure-only issue or imposes substantive restrictions.
If the Senate text lands at disclosure-only, exchanges can plausibly keep rewards alive as consumer incentives, disclosed but unrestricted.
If the language tightens into limits, caps, or conditions, then the economics of USDC distribution and on-platform stablecoin balances change entirely.
That distinction is exactly why the markup matters beyond the usual legislative theater.
Who's lobbying for what
Banks want the affiliate and partner loophole closed. The American Bankers Association and 52 state bankers' associations explicitly urged Congress to clarify that the GENIUS prohibition should extend to partners and affiliates, warning of deposit disintermediation and yield-like incentives that bypass the issuer ban.
Bank-aligned commenters responding to Treasury's GENIUS implementation notice went further, arguing that benefits provided directly or indirectly should fall within the prohibition.
Their concern is structural: if platforms can offer rewards that function economically like yield, the issuer ban becomes theater while the real competition for deposits happens one layer removed.
The crypto industry argues that Congress deliberately distinguished between issuer-paid yield and platform rewards.
The Blockchain Association-led coalition argues that the law bans issuer-paid yield while preserving the ability of platforms and third parties to offer lawful rewards and incentives.
They warn that expanding the ban would reduce competition, inject uncertainty early in implementation, and penalize exchanges for using their own capital to drive adoption.
Coinbase's economic exposure makes this more than posturing. The company reported $355 million in stablecoin revenue in the third quarter of 2025 and described rewards as a driver of USDC growth, with average USDC balances in Coinbase products around $15 billion during that quarter.
Rewards language hits a material revenue line.
Why does this fight get harder in 2026
Stablecoins are scaling fast enough that rewards become system-relevant rather than a niche product feature.
Stablecoins registered $33 trillion in transaction volume in 2025, up 72% year-over-year, with USDC and Tether accounting for the majority of flows.
Bernstein projects that the total stablecoin supply will reach approximately $420 billion by the end of 2026, representing roughly 56% growth from current levels. Citi's longer-run forecast puts stablecoin issuance at $1.9 trillion in a base case and $4 trillion in a bull case by 2030.
Those numbers matter because they translate directly into the size of the rewards pool at stake.
A simple calculation shows the magnitude. At the current supply of nearly $309 billion, a 1.5% to 2.5% annual rewards rate implies annual incentives of $4.6 billion to $7.7 billion.
If supply reaches Bernstein's 2026 forecast of $420 billion, that pool grows to $6.3 billion to $10.5 billion. By 2030, under Citi's base case, it could reach $28.5 billion to $47.5 billion annually.
Those figures assume a moderate reward rate, well below what some platforms currently offer, and reflect the economic battlefield where banks, exchanges, and issuers compete for customer balances and payment flows.
Banks are treating this as a deposit war because the numbers justify that framing.
Standard Chartered estimated stablecoin adoption could pull $1 trillion from emerging-market bank deposits over roughly three years, with savings usage rising materially by 2028.
That projection assumes stablecoins continue to function as quasi-savings vehicles rather than pure transactional instruments, which is exactly what happens when platforms offer rewards that make holding balances attractive.
The macro backdrop explains why banks pushed for the affiliate and partner perimeter in their congressional comments, they see rewards as the mechanism that turns payment stablecoins into deposit substitutes regardless of what the issuer does.
What to watch at markup
Four questions will determine whether the coalition holds or fractures.
- Does CLARITY treat rewards as disclosure-only or impose substantive restrictions? Disclosure requirements leave room for platforms to continue rewards programs with transparency. Substantive restrictions would cap, condition, or outright prohibit those programs.
- Does the language apply only to issuers or extend to affiliated platforms, partners, and intermediaries? That's the explicit ask from banks and the explicit objection from exchanges.
- Does the definition of “reward” capture pass-through reserve yield economics, or is it narrow enough that exchanges can route around it through loyalty programs and marketing spend? The Treasury notice comment letters make this the real definitional battleground: whether “solely” becomes a loophole or a clear line.
- What does enforcement look like in practice? Even if markup advances CLARITY, implementation requires rulemakings, agency resourcing, and coordination between Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and prudential regulators.
The January markup is an opening move, not a finish line, and the regulatory perimeter could shift as agencies interpret the statute and respond to industry structuring.
The Bank for International Settlements has already catalogued how regulators globally approach stablecoin yields and rewards, including prohibitions on no-interest or yield arrangements and the policy logic that distinguishes payment instruments from investment products.
The European Union and the United Kingdom are moving toward tighter perimeter controls, with financial stability framing, treating stablecoin regulation as systemic rather than experimental.
That international context matters because it sets the baseline for what counts as a credible payment stablecoin framework, and whether the US law creates arbitrage opportunities or aligns with global standards.
| Issue | Disclosure-only? | Substantive restriction? | Applies to affiliates/partners? | Routes-around possible? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1) Disclosure vs restriction | Requires clear consumer disclosures for rewards (rate, source of funds, conditions, revocability) but does not limit offering rewards | Caps/conditions/prohibits rewards (or creates “de facto ban” via eligibility, funding, or product-structure limits) | If yes, it can become a backdoor restriction even if framed as disclosure | High under disclosure-only (exchanges can rebrand as loyalty/marketing); low–medium if restrictions define rewards broadly |
| 2) Issuer-only vs affiliates/partners | Keeps GENIUS’ issuer-level “no yield” as the main line; platform rewards remain allowed | Extends restrictions to platforms, intermediaries, affiliates, partners (banks’ preferred perimeter) | This is the core switch: explicit extension = broad perimeter | High if issuer-only (platform-funded rewards continue); low if affiliates/partners included (routing collapses into compliance risk) |
| 3) Broad vs narrow “reward” definition (captures pass-through yield?) | Narrow definition (e.g., “interest paid by issuer”) + disclosures → likely leaves room for “loyalty” framing | Broad definition that captures direct or indirect economic benefits tied to holding/using/retaining stablecoins (including coordinated funding / pass-through economics) | If affiliates/partners are included, a broad definition is what prevents “one-layer-removed” incentives | High if narrow (loyalty, rebates, points, fee credits); medium if broad but enforcement light; low if broad + clear anti-evasion language |
| 4) Enforcement path (rulemaking / agencies) | Heavy reliance on agency rules/guidance to specify disclosures, scope, and anti-evasion | Statute hard-codes prohibitions/conditions; agencies mainly implement | If enforcement delegates to agencies, partners/affiliates scope may expand via interpretation even if statute is ambiguous | Higher when rules lag or definitions are vague; lower when statute defines “reward” + anti-evasion clearly and agencies coordinate |
Real stakes
GENIUS established the principle that payment stablecoins shouldn't pay yield at the issuer level. CLARITY decides whether that principle extends to the entire distribution chain or is limited to the entities holding reserves.
If the Senate text restricts platform rewards substantively or expands the prohibition to affiliates, exchanges lose a primary tool for driving adoption and retaining balances. If the text stops at disclosure, the issuer ban becomes a compliance checkpoint while the real economic competition continues at the platform layer.
Coinbase's reported willingness to reconsider support signals that the industry sees this as a line worth defending, not just a negotiating position. The company's $355 million quarterly stablecoin revenue and emphasis on rewards as a growth driver make clear that restricting platform incentives changes the business model, not just the disclosure burden.
Banks' equally firm push to close the affiliate loophole shows they view platform rewards as the mechanism that turns GENIUS' issuer ban into a workaround rather than a solution.
The markup will reveal which theory of stablecoin regulation prevails: narrow issuer restrictions that preserve platform competition, or broad prohibitions that treat any yield-adjacent incentive as a threat to deposit stability.
That choice determines who controls the $6 billion to $10 billion in annual rewards projected for 2026, and whether GENIUS' “payment stablecoin” framing holds in practice or becomes a label that obscures economic reality.
The coalition supporting crypto regulation was built on the premise that clear rules enable innovation. CLARITY's rewards language will test whether that coalition can survive the specifics of what those rules actually say.
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