U.S. Bailout Of Soybean Industry Likely More Costly Than In 2018-2019

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Presidents Trump and Xi met in person during the U.S. president’s first term but have yet to do so in his second. That should change later this month. AFP via Getty Images The bailout of the U.S. soybean industry could be far more expensive than the $10 million to $14 million being floated by the Trump Administration. One factor could change that: President Trump could convince Chinese President Xi Jinping to buy U.S. soybeans if they have the first in-person meeting of his second term at a forum in South Korea later this month. That possibility aside, the data makes a pretty compelling case for a larger outlay to soybean farmers and others that began in 2018, shortly after Trump launched his initial trade war, this one focused on the U.S. trade deficit with China, with payments accelerating in 2019. Interestingly enough, in the summer of 2018, U.S. soybean exports to the world were up 7.64%, just prior to the peak exporting season of October through January. That gain would have been greater but China had already slowed its buying leading into the peak season, with the total through July down 26.82%, according to my analysis of latest U.S. Census Bureau data. This year is different. U.S. soybean exports to the world are not up as they were in 2018 but down 23.05% through July. The percentage drop to China this year, at 51.52%, is almost twice what it was in 2018%. With the data not out for the peak season, that could nevertheless begin making the case for a more expensive bailout. But how much more costly? That’s not clear. In addition to Trump meeting with Xi, that’s because it’s not clear how much of the $24 billion paid to all farmers in 2018 and 2019 through the special…