US Unemployment Hits Highs—What It Means for the Fed and Bitcoin’s Next Big Move
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The post US Unemployment Hits Highs—What It Means for the Fed and Bitcoin’s Next Big Move appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News The Bitcoin sell-off has yet again intensified as the US has just released its unemployment data, which has hit hard. The latest reading came in at 4.5%, the highest since November 2021, a level historically associated with the early phases of monetary easing cycles. Those cycles have usually preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies. It would be interesting to watch how the current rates will impact the BTC price, which is already experiencing strong upward pressure. Why Unemployment Data is the Leading Indicator for Liquidity A rising unemployment rate isn’t just economic data—it’s a pressure point. When labour weakness accelerates, the Federal Reserve is forced to shift from controlling inflation to protecting growth and preventing recession spillover. In every cycle since 2008, once unemployment pushed above trend, the Fed eventually responded with: Rate cuts Balance-sheet expansion (QE) Forward-guidance pivot toward easier financial conditions These policy shifts do not immediately appear in price action. Instead, markets tend to first unwind leverage, flush late longs, and reset positioning—exactly what we saw in Bitcoin’s drop under $86K. But once liquidity expectations bottom, Bitcoin typically begins its next major expansion leg. Why This Setup Historically Leads to BTC Breakouts Bitcoin’s macro environment is entering a phase that has historically preceded major upside moves. When unemployment rises and recession risks increase, markets begin pricing in easier monetary conditions well before the Fed acts. This shift in liquidity expectations has consistently triggered the early stages of Bitcoin’s strongest breakouts. From a technical macro lens, Bitcoin’s strongest rallies occur when three conditions align: Rising unemployment → Fed pivot probability increases: The current 4.6% print pushes the Fed closer to easing than at any point in the past…
