USD/INR gains momentum on RBI rate cut bets
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Indian Rupee weakens in Monday’s Asian session. Higher oil prices and RBI rate cut bets weigh on the INR, but stronger GDP data from India might cap its downside. Traders await the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI data later on Monday ahead of the RBI rate decision. The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Monday. A rise in crude oil prices drags the Indian currency lower. It’s worth noting that India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value. Additionally, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will deliver a third straight 25 basis points (bps) rate cut to boost growth might cap the INR’s upside in the near term. Nonetheless, the upbeat India’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report could boost equities and lift the local currency both via portfolio inflows and sentiment. Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on the US May ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Monday. On Friday, the RBI interest rate decision and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight. Traders will also closely monitor a trade negotiation between the United States (US) and India, which is officially expected to conclude by fall. US President Donald Trump slapped tariffs of up to 27% on Indian goods on April 2 and a 90-day tariff pause on these ends on July 9. Indian Rupee softens despite upbeat India’s GDP report India’s economy grew by 7.4% YoY in the first quarter of 2025, up from 6.2% the previous quarter and significantly beating analyst expectations of 6.7%. India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy, though growth has sharply declined from the 9.2% high recorded in the financial year 2023-24. Net…