Analyzing Bitcoin, Ethereum & Recession Risks in 2025
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Like springtime in New York City, the crypto market got hot, all at once, in early May. After weeks of navigating choppy seas, influenced in part by anxieties surrounding the administration’s trade brinksmanship, a palpable shift in sentiment propelled the crypto sphere into a notable rally. Bitcoin shape-shifted from a tariff tantrum mooring into a determined hunter of all-time highs. This bullish resurgence was not isolated. Ether, having endured a significant drawdown of over 50% since the start of the year, staged an impressive bounce, gaining 36% in the five days following the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade. The broader blockchain market mirrored this enthusiasm. The CoinDesk 20 Index, the benchmark for the performance of top digital assets, added nearly 18% in the past week, bringing its 30-day return to over 33%. Further down the capitalization spectrum, the CoinDesk 80 Index, which tracks assets beyond the top 20, also rebounded strongly from its lows, delivering 37% over the past month. Demonstrating truly epic participation breadth, the 50-constituent CoinDesk Memecoin Index added a 55% on the week and a whopping 86% in the last month. Given the fundamentally limited (zero) direct impact of tariff and trade news on the intrinsic value of most (all) crypto assets, this lunge higher feels like what they call a “sentiment shift.” With CoinDesk’s Consensus conference unfolding this week in Toronto, the timing couldn’t be more opportune. The vibes are good. Performance of CoinDesk 20, CoinDesk 80, CoinDesk Memecoin Index, bitcoin, and ether since Liberation Day, April 2, 2025 Source: CoinDesk Indices The specter of recession This recent market exuberance, both within digital assets and across traditional risk-on asset classes, has not quelled the underlying concerns of those who believe the United States is gradually inching towards a recession. Official recessions, as declared by the National Bureau of…