Bitcoin eyes breakout toward ATH as 50bps Fed rate cut odds climb to 17%

The post Bitcoin eyes breakout toward ATH as 50bps Fed rate cut odds climb to 17% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Markets are pricing about 30 basis points of easing for the Sept. 17 Federal Open Market Committee decision, split between a base case quarter point cut and a smaller tail for 50 basis points. Should rates drop 50bps, Bitcoin could eye a return to all-time highs. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, probabilities as of Sept. 10 at 7:30 A.M. CT stood near 90 percent for a 25 basis point move, about 10 percent for 50, and close to zero for no change, with an implied cut size of roughly 27 to 29 basis points. Additionally, Polymarket’s $21 million prediction contract leans even further toward a potential 50bps cut. Predictions cluster around 81 percent for 25, 17 percent for 50, and 3 percent for a hold, which maps to about 28.8 basis points of easing. The backdrop to the decision has shifted materially over the past two months. A Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark shows the United States created about 911,000 fewer jobs through March 2025 than initially reported, the largest downward adjustment since 2009. Inflation progress is uneven by gauge, with core CPI near 3.1 percent year over year in August per the BLS and core PCE at 2.9 percent in July according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The front of the Treasury curve reflects an easing path while the long end remains anchored by term premium and fiscal dynamics. A Reuters strategist poll points to a steeper curve into year-end, with the two-year yield around 3.40 percent in twelve months and the ten-year yield near 4.25 percent, implying a two-tens spread near 85 basis points. Cleveland Fed economists place the nominal neutral policy rate near 3.7 percent, which means policy would remain above neutral even after a quarter- to half-point trim. Near-term catalysts before the announcement can…