Bitcoin jumps as Trump’s Iran deal reopens Hormuz – but will Warsh’s first Fed meeting kill the rally?
Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000 earlier today, reversing weeks of intense selling pressure after a sudden diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran lifted a major geopolitical cloud over global financial markets.
Data from CryptoSlate shows that the flagship digital asset rose more than 3% to reach as high as $65,940, but has since retraced slightly to $65,668 as of press time. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, also advanced to $1,724 as of press time.
The market turnaround followed a weekend announcement from President Donald Trump stating that a peace agreement to end the three-month-old conflict in the Middle East had been finalized.
The agreement includes the immediate removal of the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits.
The framework for the peace deal, mediated by Pakistan, is scheduled to be formalized at an official signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19.
Confirming the resolution, Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan's Prime Minister, said:
“Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Following the confirmation, the announcement quickly moved across asset classes. Oil prices fell, equity futures rose, and crypto markets recovered as traders unwound part of the war premium that had built up since the conflict began in late February.
Data from oilprice.com showed that West Texas Intermediate crude dropped nearly 5% to hover around $80 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped below $84. Both benchmarks had surged above $110 earlier in the conflict as traders priced in the risk of a prolonged disruption to energy flows.
The decline in crude prices helped ease concerns that another energy shock would feed into inflation and force central banks to keep policy tighter for longer. That shift gave risk assets, including Bitcoin, room to rebound.
Still, the recovery remains fragile. The Iran deal removed an immediate macro stressor, but it also pushed the market’s focus back to the Federal Reserve, where newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his first policy meeting this week.
Selling pressure begins to ease
Bitcoin’s rebound was not driven by macro relief alone, as on-chain and fund-flow data suggest that some of the forced selling that weighed on the market earlier this month has started to cool.
Data from SoSoValue shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $316 million in outflows last week, marking a notable slowdown after more than $5 billion had exited the funds over the previous four weeks.
That easing became clearer last Friday, when the funds posted $85 million in net inflows, their strongest single-day positive flows in more than three weeks.
The reversal suggests that Wall Street’s aggressive unwind of long Bitcoin exposure may have reached a point of temporary exhaustion.
CryptoQuant data points to a similar shift among large holders. The firm said whale selling pressure slowed as major wallets appeared to absorb supply near the recent lows.
Its exchange whale ratio rose to 62.3% during the drawdown, indicating that large holders accounted for a larger share of exchange activity as Bitcoin approached the bottom of its recent range.
The shift was followed by a wave of withdrawals from trading venues. More than 11,400 BTC, worth roughly $750 million at current prices, were moved from exchanges into cold storage, according to CryptoQuant. By June 14, the total supply held by wallets containing at least 100 BTC had reversed a 12-day decline.
Those signals suggest Bitcoin has moved away from the most aggressive phase of forced selling and into a more balanced structure.
That matters because the recent decline was intensified by weak liquidity, ETF outflows, and derivatives positioning. When those pressures begin to ease and macro conditions improve, relief rallies can move quickly.
Bitcoin must turn relief into demand
For Bitcoin, the next few sessions will show whether today's move marks the start of a broader recovery or another short-lived stabilization rally.
The derivatives market could help determine that outcome.
Crypto research firm 10X Research said Bitcoin’s earlier break below $70,000 triggered forced selling from options dealers who were short gamma around that level. As prices fell, dealers had to sell more of the underlying asset to hedge their exposure, adding pressure to the decline.
That positioning has now shifted lower. According to the firm, the largest negative-gamma strike on the board, worth about $1.8 billion, is now close to Bitcoin’s current spot price.
The setup could cut both ways. If Bitcoin fails to hold current levels, dealer hedging could add renewed pressure.
However, if the market breaks higher, the same mechanics that worsened the selloff could force dealers to buy into the move, strengthening the rebound.
The signal is especially important because implied volatility across major crypto assets has fallen below realized volatility. In effect, options markets are pricing in less movement than Bitcoin has recently delivered.
That leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp repricing if this week’s macro events surprise traders.
The $65,000 level is now the immediate line to watch. If Bitcoin can hold above that area and push toward $68,000 to $70,000 on stronger spot demand and improving ETF flows, the market would have a stronger case for a durable rebound.
However, a move back below $62,000 would weaken that setup and put the $60,000 region back in focus.
The post Bitcoin jumps as Trump’s Iran deal reopens Hormuz – but will Warsh’s first Fed meeting kill the rally? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
