Bitcoin Price Analysis: What Happens to BTC if $90K Support Is Decisively Lost?

Bitcoin continues to grind lower as bullish momentum fades. After failing to break the key $95K resistance level last week, sellers are slowly regaining control. The price action remains choppy and indecisive, while on-chain signals hint at deeper stress building in the background.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows BTC still trapped in the clear descending channel. The asset recently failed again at the higher boundary of the channel and the bearish order block near $95K, acting as a major supply zone. Since then, it has rolled over, printing lower candle closes.

Both the 100-day and 200-day MAs are overhead and sloping downward just above the $100K mark, reinforcing the bearish structure. The RSI also remains weak, struggling to climb back above 50. Unless buyers reclaim $95K with volume, this looks more like a dead-cat bounce inside a downtrend. On the other hand, if the current short-term support level at $88K breaks, the next key demand zone is around $80K.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, BTC just bounced off the lower trendline of the ascending triangle, but it’s not convincing. The pattern is weakening as the price gets squeezed tighter. Each bounce is weaker than the last.

The asset has demonstrated clear rejections near $95K area multiple times. That is the short-term line in the sand. A breakdown below $88K would invalidate the triangle and likely trigger a flush toward $84K or even the primary demand zone around $80K. Momentum also favors the downside as the RSI has yet to recover above 50 and show bullish momentum.

On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR

Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR is teasing with the 1.0 level, which is a key threshold. When aSOPR drops below 1, it means coins are being sold at a loss, signaling loss realization by the average market participant. Historically, dips below 1 during corrections mark capitulation phases where weaker hands finally exit. That often leads to a local bottom shortly after.

At the moment, the aSOPR is clearly trending downward. If it breaks under 1 decisively, we could see a spike in panic selling. Yet, that also creates the conditions for a stronger rebound, especially if it happens near the $80K-$82K support zone, where demand is eagerly waiting.