CLARITY Act Gets a Major Boost, But Another Setback Threatens Its 2026 Passage
The CLARITY Act received a potentially important boost ahead of its first Senate floor test, which was supposed to take place on September 15, but another scheduling setback is further threatening its chances of becoming law this year.
On the plus side, the National Sheriffs’ Association (NSA) has changed its tune on the landmark crypto market structure bill from opposition to neutral after previously raising concerns that it could make it more difficult for authorities to combat illicit finance involving digital assets.
NSA Turns Neutral
In the filing to the US Senate, the agency said that it believes the appropriate course is to step back and allow the legislative process to continue given the legislation’s complexity and the issues still being negotiated. This change matters because law enforcement concerns had become a major hurdle for some Senate Democrats whose votes could determine whether the bill advances.
Although the NSA’s move doesn’t mean that it now supports the legislation, its shift from opposition to neutrality removes a source of pressure on senators considering voting to advance it. Essentially, it removes another potential obstacle to attracting the Democratic support the bill needs when it reaches the Senate floor later this month.
Recall that the Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture vote motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 in early August so that the Senate can vote on the bill once recess ends.
The vote requires 60 senators and will not pass the CLARITY Act itself. Instead, success would limit debate on the motion to proceed and move the bill toward formal Senate consideration. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning that Democratic or independent support will be necessary if the conference votes together.
Another Setback
House Republican leaders canceled voting sessions during the weeks of September 21 and 28, removing eight legislative days from the calendar, and the House is now scheduled to leave Washington on September 17, which is just two days after the Senate’s first procedural vote.
The new calendar leaves no time for the Senate negotiations to begin and conclude before lawmakers turn their attention to the November midterms. That makes a post-election lame-duck session an increasingly realistic path for the legislation if it clears the Senate.
Galaxy Research already reduced its estimated probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026 from 50% to 30% after the Senate failed to vote on it before the August recess. Prediction markets are even less optimistic, with passage odds currently below 20%.
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