The U.S. Can Win Its 2026 World Cup Group, But It Won’t Be Easy
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United States head coach Mauricio Pochettino coaches winger Max Arfsten during the international friendly match against Paraguay in November in Chester, Pa. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images In the aftermath of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw held on Friday afternoon in Washington, there has been an almost universal agreement among American media that the U.S. men’s national team received a favorable draw. The Americans will face Australia, Paraguay and the winner of UEFA Playoff C (Turkiye, Slovakia, Romania or Kosovo) in their Group D round robin. The top two finishers will advance automatically to the 32-team knockout stage. And eight third-place finishers out of 12 groups will also progress. And as a host nation and the highest ranked Group D side in the FIFA World Rankings, the Americans will be favorites not only to advance from their group but also win it, something they haven’t accomplished since 2010. But it may not be as straightforward as the early projections suggest, for a few reasons. Group Balance The Americans eluded a couple of the obvious worst-case scenarios by avoiding Croatia, Morocco or one of the South American teams in Pot 2. But in failing to draw a European team before Pot 4, they also ensured that they would avoid one of the true minnows of the competition, because tournament regulations would force them to be paired with one of the European playoff pathways. Group D Teams (FIFA World Rankings) United States (14)Australia (26)Paraguay (39)*Turkiye (25)*Slovakia (45)*Romania (47)*Kosovo (80) *Potential European playoff winner And if Turkiye wins its playoff, it would create a group where all four teams are inside FIFA’s current Top 40. The only other place that’s possible is Group F, depending on which European team joins the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia. To think of it another way, while…
