This Year Has Been a Drag But BTC is Still Up Over 400% Since Cycle Low
Crypto markets are currently around 13% lower than they were at the beginning of this year, and Bitcoin is down approximately 8%. Total market capitalization is now at its lowest level since April after falling below $3 trillion this week, but it’s not all that bad, say analysts and experts.
“I get that this year is a drag, but consider Bitcoin was up 468% in the two years prior to this year,” observed Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on Thursday. He added that this was an annual return of 138%, which is eight times more than US stocks.
“That is sooo much excess return beyond normalcy,” he said before adding, “all that happened this year is you gave back a tiny bit of the excess.”
“It’s like your ice cream sundae now has 55 cherries instead of 60. You’re Fine!”
Feels Worse Than Covid Crash
Futures trader ‘Toni’ replied, stating that the long-term gain and current pullback mean that “reversion is doing its job, not a bear market.”
“The ETF inflows created the spike, now we’re just settling back to the long-term BTC growth curve. This is healthy consolidation.”
The comments came in response to analyst ‘Ash Crypto,’ who said that markets made this year feel worse than the COVID crash, FTX meltdown, LUNA crash, SEC and Gary Gensler’s lawsuit spree, Celsius and BlockFi bankruptcies, and the 3AC collapse.
He listed several bullish fundamentals that have emerged this year, including pro-crypto policy in the US, all-time highs for stocks and commodities, institutional adoption, and expansion of the global money supply.
“Market rallies don’t start when hope is high, it’s when people are tired, frustrated, and ready to give up.”
2025 has been brutal, “it was front-loaded pain in every single way possible, from tariffs to geopolitical tensions to policy mayhem and everything in between,” said crypto investor Jesse Eckel.
However, he also debunked the four-year cycle theory, stating that 2026 is structurally the opposite.
“They want an economic boom and are pouring as much gasoline on the fire as they can. It’s not even 2026, and we’ve already received three rate cuts, QT is over, balance sheet expansion is underway, and tariff reductions,” he added before adding that it will be a five-year cycle.
Don’t Panic And Zoom Out
Looking at the Bitcoin chart from a yearly perspective shows that it is still in a strong uptrend. BTC is still double the price it was trading at on this day two years ago and more than 400% higher than it was in December 2022.
Nevertheless, the asset continues to weaken in the short term and was trading around $87,000 at the time of writing, 31% down from its all-time high, but up 2.3% after the Bank of Japan raised rates on Friday morning.
Institutions buying #Bitcoin
Bitcoin down $46,000… pic.twitter.com/trFRiNejst
— Jason Pizzino
(@jasonpizzino) December 18, 2025
The post This Year Has Been a Drag But BTC is Still Up Over 400% Since Cycle Low appeared first on CryptoPotato.
