Last Bitcoin Options Expiry of the Year, Here’s What the Data Tells

Today is the last Bitcoin options expiry for the year 2023 before we march onto 2024. As of December 29, the cryptocurrency options market is gearing up for a significant expiration, according to data from Greeks.Live. Approximately 178,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire, revealing a Put Call Ratio of 0.67. The maximum pain point is identified at $33,000, with a substantial notional value reaching $7.59 billion.

Today marks the culmination of the big annual delivery day, witnessing a total of $11 billion in options expiring. This figure represents a notable increase from last year’s total position, which stood at $9.8 billion during the corresponding annual delivery day. Furthermore, the current volume is more than double the annual delivery volume observed at the same time last year. 

While the cryptocurrency market typically experiences low volatility towards the end of each year, the imminent arrival of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in January is contributing to sustained interest. Despite the usual trend of low volatility, the current overall Implied Volatility (IV) level remains relatively balanced, thanks to the anticipated ETF developments in the coming month.

The year 2023 has demonstrated the increasing maturity of the crypto options and derivatives market, with a noticeable influx of institutional investors. This influx brings with it a broader spectrum of strategies and products, signaling a maturing market as it evolves to accommodate a diverse range of participants and trading approaches.
 
Top market players have been gearing up for the Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. As per the tentative schedule, this shall happen around January 10, 2024.
On December 28, 2023, both Ark Invest and 21Shares took a significant step by filing amendment no. 5 to the form S-1. This move comes at a time of heightened anticipation within the financial markets regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The latest amendment is reported to focus on alterations to the terms governing the authorized participants involved in the process. This updated filing comes just a day before today’s deadline of December 29.
Currently, the Bitcoin price is flirting around $43,000 levels. Some market analysts believe that we could see a dip to $40,000 going ahead. However, any such dip could be a strong buying opportunity.